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星期三, 9月 29, 2010

香港新股上市分析:Mongolian Mining Corporation (00975)


利好
— 公司是首家來自蒙古共和國的企業到香港掛牌上市,這是重要的里程碑。公司日後毫無疑問是該國的繳稅大戶,該國政府必然大力扶持;
— 現時澳洲總煤炭儲量達到100億噸,而蒙古共和國管有的煤炭總儲量高達70億噸,後者的煤炭資源之豐富程度可見一班;
— 公司的煤炭儲量5億噸,比對整個蒙古共和國的70億噸,但是當地的開發商僅有兩家,拓展空間顯然龐大;
— 按照生產及總銷售量計算,公司擁有蒙古共和國最大型私營焦煤礦場;
— 根據蒙古共和國海關的官方記錄,截至2010年6月30日為止六個月,公司是蒙古共和國最大的焦煤生產商及出口商,其出口量佔到總焦煤出口量的61.9%左右;
— 根據Wood Mackenzie的資料,公司的焦煤屬於高素質的類別,而主要煤礦資產位於蒙古國南戈壁Tavan Tolgoi的UHG礦場能夠露天開採,開採成本比較低;
— 根據McKinsey的統計資料,中國焦煤產量仍然供不應求,2009年進口燃煤2,800萬噸,估算2015年增加到4,400萬噸,當中一半從蒙古進口;
— 截至2009年12月底為止財年每噸焦煤的平均售價是48.3美元,截至2010年首4個月為止每噸焦煤的平均售價為54.77美元,預期未來焦煤價格仍舊穩中有漲;
— 目前礦場進入快速生產階段,去年焦煤產量180萬噸,截至2010年年底為止財年預計生產380萬噸,明年提升生產量到700萬噸,至於2012年生產1,000萬噸,2013年更進一步增加到1,470萬噸;
— 蒙古共和國國會已批准公司興建鐵路運輸設施接駁中國,估計工程將於明年上半年動工,該鐵路竣工以後有望降低運輸成本增加利潤;
— 現時已跟寶鋼、沙鋼、旭陽焦化、……等企業簽訂為期5至10年的長期直銷供貨合同,減省中間商的費用,待到2012年以後產品將全數直銷予終端客戶;
— 集資金額的50%投資煤礦及交通基建建設、40%用來收購,餘額撥作一般營運資本之用,全數用到主營業務裡頭;
— 傳聞恒基地產(00012)主席李兆基、中華煤氣(00003)及新加坡政府旗下GIC有意認購股份;

利淡
— 由於目前缺乏鐵路配套,焦煤只得利用運送成本比鐵路高的重型卡車運送給中國客戶;
— 有鑑於僅焦化廠及鋼鐵廠需要購買焦煤,根據蒙古共和國礦產資源局的資料顯示,蒙古共和國現時沒有註冊的焦化廠或鋼鐵廠,焦煤只有出口到中國,完全依賴出口到中國的格局存在單一市場風險;
— 毛利率從2009財年的42.3%大幅降至2010年4月底的35.8%;
— 2009財年利潤1,027萬美元,預計截至2010年12月底為止預測綜合盈利將不少於6,000萬美元(折合每股盈利0.0167美元),相當於2010年招股區間預測全面攤薄市盈率介於49.75-58.04倍,作價著實昂貴(不過預期市盈率將隨同日後銷量及盈利的猛增而大幅下降,唯變數太多難以掌握。保薦人花旗表示其2011年預測市盈率降至16倍以下,2012年預測市盈率可能低於7倍。);


財務比率(12/2007→12/2008→12/2009)

流動比率:0.33→0.44→0.71
速動比率:0.33→0.44→0.53

長期債項/股東權益:-.--%→-.--%→22.81%
總債項/股東權益:-.--%→20.28%→78.01%
總債項/資本運用:-.--%→17.65%→48.08%

股東權益回報率:-.--%→-.--%→23.43%
資本運用回報率:-.--%→-.--%→14.44%
總資產回報率:-.--%→-.--%→9.07%

經營利潤率:-.--%→-.--%→21.54%
稅前利潤率:-.--%→-.--%→21.47%
邊際利潤率:-.--%→-.--%→15.33%

存貨週轉率:-.--→-.--→8.74


附註:本文只供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與「貝沁才」交流室、編者及作者無涉。

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