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星期六, 11月 20, 2010

香港新股上市分析:藍星安迪蘇營養集團有限公司(01095)


利好
— 營養性飼料添加劑(主要提供基本營養素,從而改善生長及牲畜的肉質與肉量,能夠預防疾病及減少維他命缺失,並且幫助繁殖及提高飼料消化吸收效率)是工業化生產中對牲畜的生長及健康必不可少的化合物,預期全球人口持續增長拉動肉類及蛋白質的需求量,大幅提升飼料及營養性飼料添加劑的需求量,也預期國內營養性飼料添加劑的需求將不斷增加;
— 有鑑於中國政府現時全力扶持內地農業發展,而股份具有幫助農民減低生產成本與增加競爭力(根據Fountain Agricounsel LLC的資料,使用營養性飼料添加劑可降低飼料成本12%,及減少每公斤雞肉生產成本23%)的內地農業獨特概念,勢必受惠;
— 母公司中國化工旗下的藍星集團,實力雄厚;
— 安迪蘇是一家由法國人管理的具有歐洲背景的公司,管理質量相當高;
— 公司的經營歷史已有65年,根據Fountain Agricounsel LLC的資料,公司是全球營養性飼料添加劑領先企業之一,按照產能計算,公司是全球三大蛋氨酸生產商之一(旗下蛋氨酸之全球市佔率約莫26%),至於其他產品(維他命、酶、反芻動物產品及硫產品)也具有全球領導地位,再者,目前只有兩家生產商能夠提供液態及粉狀蛋氨酸,安迪蘇是其中之一;
— 公司是全球蛋氨酸生產成本最低的生產商之一;
— 待到位於南京的生產線(預計2012財年下半年投產,2014財年可供14萬噸液態蛋氨酸)正式投產以後,公司就成為中國第一家全球蛋氨酸生產商及國內最大蛋氨酸製造商與供應商;
— 公司特別專注家禽市場(牲畜行業發展最快的一個細分部分)的營養性飼料添加劑;
— 憑著五個位於法國、西班牙及美國的縱向一體化與具成本競爭力的生產基地,及於多個國家的廣泛銷售及分銷平台及龐大的技術專業團隊,能夠為100多個國家的2,500多名客戶提供各式各樣的營養性飼料添加劑及創新解決方案,由於業務技術要求相當高,外界難以複製該等研究、銷售及生產員工積累下來的專門技術,因此過往20年之內從未有新公司能夠擠進該市場,行業領先者包括安迪蘇在內比起新加入者的確具有競爭優勢;
— 2007-2009財年收益之複合年增長率達到26.7%,期內權益持有人溢利分別是158.1萬歐元、1.7215億歐元及1.86969億歐元,顯示出其業務正在快速成長;
— 預測截至2010財年權益持有人綜合溢利將不少於1.61億歐元(按照已發行及將予發行92.02806億股股份計算,折合每股溢利0.0175歐元),相當於2010財年招股區間預測市盈率介於18.87-28.3倍。假設2011財年預測權益持有人綜合溢利2億歐元,即2011財年招股區間預測市盈率介於15.19-22.79倍,又若果誠如保薦人德銀預測的2011財年權益持有人綜合溢利能夠更進一步達到23.83億港元,即2011財年招股區間預測市盈率介於13.52-20.27倍,相較同業之平均市盈率22倍實是來得便宜;
— 估計股份掛牌上市以後是多個指數的成分股,可能是為數不少的基金之購入對象;

利淡
— 是次公售的23.007億股股份當中一半竟是舊股;
— 有鑑於主要原材料(包括丙烯、硫、甲醇、氨及天然氣等)的成本佔到收益的40.2%,往後石油價格波動勢將影響到其業務毛利率;
— 業績以歐元報告,但旗下六成產品卻是以美元計價,存在匯兌風險,多年來實施外匯對沖舉措時而收益時而虧損,參看2007-2009財年匯兌分別有809.6萬歐元收益、1,220萬歐元虧損及126.5萬歐元收益,2010財年上半年已產生2,564.7萬歐元虧損,情況並不穩定;
— 存有爆發牲畜與家禽疫病等天災致使銷售下降的風險;
— 沒法避免如法國大罷工等人禍影響到業務的不愉快事件再次發生;


財務比率(12/2007→12/2008→12/2009)

流動比率:1.01→1.32→2.03
速動比率:0.68→1.03→1.65

長期債項/股東權益:2,436.04%→161.69%→76.08%
總債項/股東權益:3,063.42%→222.33%→103.25%
總債項/資本運用:100.48%→75.29%→53.15%

股東權益回報率:11.10%→91.58%→50.56%
資本運用回報率:0.36%→31.01%→26.03%
總資產回報率:0.23%→18.23%→18.63%

經營利潤率:5.48%→29.64%→30.45%
稅前利潤率:1.04%→26.85%→28.97%
邊際利潤率:0.26%→17.43%→18.97%

存貨週轉率:7.75→8.59→9.22


附註:本文只供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與「貝沁才」交流室、編者及作者無涉。

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