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星期二, 5月 29, 2007

香港新股上市分析:大洋集團控股有限公司(1991)

利好
— 按產量計算,公司是行業龍頭,全球市佔率大約9.9%,國內市佔率是14.6%;
— 公司訂立目標,未來3年手機相關業務的全球市佔率將由0.4%增加到3%,手提電腦相關業務的市佔率則由30%提升至40%;
— 業務的邊際利潤率相當不錯,超過20個巴仙;
— 公司優勢是自設矽膠廠房,容易控制成本,平均毛利高達39%,相較同業的高;
— 今後產能大大提高,按鈕年產能從今年的5億塊增加至09年的7.5億塊;矽膠月產能由500噸提高至700噸;
— 預期世界各地人們對電子消費品的需求持續增加,有利集團業務發展;
— 2006年底,公司接到諾基亞及摩托羅拉等手機生產商的訂單,開拓一片新市場──手機按鍵市場;
— 未來增加汽車按鈕業務(毛利率高達40至65%)比重,盈利可以進一步增長;
— 是次集資淨額約70%用作生產設施及產能,約10%用於提升及擴充上游生產設施,約7%用於加強研發能力及改善品質監控,另約4%用作執行企業資源規劃系統,餘額則用作一般營運資金,當中大部分資金用以擴充生產設備,屬於正面;
— 與多家世界知名品牌商如Casio、Philips、Shin-Etsu有長久的業務往來;
— 全球手機按鍵製造領導企業──信越聚合物株式會社及日本企業三菱商業株式會社當上策略投資者,分別持有1.5%權益,禁售期12個月;

利淡
— 現今香港投資市場一般較為冷待台資公司;
— 是次發行2億股(2億股/2,000股=10萬手),預期股份掛牌以後流動性不高;
— 05年度及06年度純利分別是1.28億元及1.44億元,07年預測盈利不少於1.53億元,沒有大幅增長的勢頭;
— 人民幣持續升值或許減低經營業務的利潤;
— 對於工業股而言,07年預測招股市盈率介於14.2倍至18.3倍,08年預測市盈率則介於9.6倍至12.3倍,數據偏高;


財務比率(07/2004→07/2005→07/2006)

Ø 流動比率:1.17→1.96→1.33
Ø 速動比率:1.01→1.69→0.99
註:剛好過去的財年之速動比率少於1,表示公司的變現能力變差。

Ø 長期債項/股東權益:0.00%→0.00%→0.00%
Ø 總債項/股東權益:35.44%→0.00%→38.62%
Ø 總債項/資本運用:35.44%→0.00%→38.60%
註:公司的負債不多。

Ø 股東權益回報率:64.55%→48.34%→57.79%
Ø 資本運用回報率:64.54%→48.33%→57.78%
Ø 總資產回報率:24.26%→30.28%→29.31%
註:幾項回報率也很好!

Ø 經營利潤率:25.24%→27.71%→27.57%
Ø 稅前利潤率:25.24%→27.71%→27.57%
Ø 邊際利潤率:20.68%→24.35%→24.87%
註:過往三年的邊際利潤率皆處於20個巴仙以上的頗高水平。

Ø 存貨週轉率:11.63→12.70→7.05


附註:本文只供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與「貝沁才」交流室、編者及作者無涉。

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